Resale Flat Prices Rise 25 19Th Straight Quarter Hdb 4Q2024 Flash

Is it a Good Deal?: $1.33 million for a four-room HDB flat at Tampines Green Dew that has had only one previous owner

The recent flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) on January 2nd revealed a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase in resale flat prices in the fourth quarter of 2024. This growth rate is slightly slower than the 2.7% q-o-q recorded in the previous quarter, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of price increases in the HDB resale segment.

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According to the flash estimates, HDB resale prices have seen a significant growth of 9.6% in 2024, doubling the 4.9% growth seen in 2023. However, this growth rate is still slower compared to the 10.4% increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021, as reported by Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.

Citing data from data.gov.sg downloaded on January 2nd at 8.15am, OrangeTee observed a slowdown in price growth for some flat types. For instance, the median price of four-room flats saw a q-o-q increase of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is slower than the 3.4% growth seen in the third quarter of the year. Similarly, two-room flats recorded a 2% q-o-q price increase in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was slower than the 3.9% growth seen in the previous quarter. Executive flats also registered a slower q-o-q price increase of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 1.7% in the third quarter.

In contrast, five-room flats showed a faster price growth of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the 1.2% increase in the third quarter.

Resale volume down 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 4Q2024

Resale volume declined by 3.6% y-o-y to 6,314 units in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 6,547 transactions in the same period of 2023. This decrease was also apparent on a q-o-q basis, with a decline of 22.5% from 8,142 units in the third quarter of 2024.

Sun attributes this decline in HDB resale transactions to the HDB launching over 8,500 new flats in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, with many units in prime and desirable locations. She further explains that the attractive features of these flats, including scenic views and proximity to MRT stations, diverted demand away from the resale market towards the BTO market. Furthermore, sales also slowed during the seasonal year-end school holidays, when many Singaporeans tend to travel abroad, resulting in decreased house viewings and sales activities during this period.

However, Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, attributes the slower pace of growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 to the government’s intervention in August 2024 when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. “Based on the weaker sales and slower growth in the HDB resale price index in the fourth quarter of 2024, it can be concluded that the August 2024 measures are likely to be working through the market,” added Wong. “Moreover, the lower resale volume in the quarter also likely contributed to the slower price growth.”

Total resale volume in 2024 up by 8% y-o-y

According to the data from PropNex Research, data.gov.sg up till December 31st and retrieved on January 2nd, the total resale volume in 2024 was 28,876 units, registering an 8% increase as compared to the 26,735 units recorded in 2023 and the 27,896 units in 2022. However, this number is still lower than the peak of 31,017 units in 2021.

Decline in million-dollar flat transactions in 4Q2024

The decrease in resale transactions in the fourth quarter of 2024 led to a decline in million-dollar flat transactions to 283 units from 331 units in the third quarter. Despite this drop, the total number of million-dollar transactions reached an all-time high of 1,033 units in 2024, as reported by OrangeTee’s Sun. This figure is more than double the 469 million-dollar transactions recorded in the previous year.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Toa Payoh town recorded the highest number of million-dollar resale flat deals with 58 transactions. Out of these, 20 were for four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which recently reached the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP). However, it should be noted that these figures are based on caveats and may differ from the actual numbers.

Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, explains that the new classification of Plus and Prime classification BTO flats may have driven more homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations. He further elaborates that these buyers are not willing to accept the resale restrictions such as a 10-year MOP, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale, and resale income cap on future buyers.

Hence, it is expected that HDB resale prices will continue to rise in 2025, albeit at a slower pace compared to previous years. Sun from OrangeTee comments that in many areas, prices have already reached new highs, creating affordability concerns for potential buyers. She adds that the ongoing supply of BTO flats is likely to help moderate price growth in the secondary market; however, the extent of price stabilization will depend on the number of BTO flats the government plans to release in the upcoming years.

In February 2025, HDB is scheduled to launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 flats in various towns, as per Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. He explains that this may lead to buyers waiting to try their luck before opting for the resale market. Moreover, the possibility of lower interest rates in 2025 may also encourage some buyers to consider purchasing an executive condo (EC) or a resale condominium. Therefore, it is expected that the million-dollar flat market may stabilize in the range of 900 to 1,200 units in 2025.

Huttons projects that HDB resale flat transactions will end the year at 26,000 to 28,000, with resale flat prices likely to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8%. On the other hand, PropNex expects the HDB resale market to perform well in 2025, underpinned by healthy housing demand and fewer MOP flats coming on board, possibly keeping resale prices stable. Wong foresees a 5% to 7% growth in HDB resale flat prices, with a resale volume forecast of 29,000 to 30,000 units by the end of 2025.