Singapore Retail Sales Growth Strengthen 4q2025 Rhb

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Singapore’s retail market is projected to experience a boost in sales growth during the fourth quarter of 2025, despite a modest performance so far this year, as stated in a recent report by RHB. The research firm maintains its full-year forecast of a 2.5% increase in retail sales, showing a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year.

This unchanged prediction is supported by the higher retail sales growth recorded in August by the Department of Statistics. The data reveals a 5.2% year-on-year growth in retail sales, a substantial increase from the 4.6% seen in the previous month. This marks the strongest expansion in retail sales since February 2024, when a 8.4% year-on-year growth was achieved. With the inclusion of August’s figures, Singapore’s retail sales have risen by 2.2% year-to-date.

The RHB report also attributes the positive outlook for the last quarter to a rise in tourism inflows during the upcoming festive periods such as Deepavali and Christmas, as well as the year-end school holidays. Government initiatives, like the distribution of SG60 and GST vouchers, are also expected to contribute to a short-term increase in domestic demand. The GST voucher program, which started in August, will provide eligible Singaporeans with up to $850 in cash, in addition to the $600 in SG60 vouchers distributed in July.

The research firm also points to the healthy online sales data as an indication of strong consumer confidence. In August, online sales accounted for 13.1% of the total retail sales value of $4.3 billion, remaining consistent with July’s numbers. The majority of online sales were in the categories of computer and telecommunications equipment (54.5%), followed by furniture and household equipment (32.6%), and supermarkets or hypermarkets (11.3%).

Despite the resilient performance of the retail market, RHB recognizes that its positive outlook is dependent on the stability of economic conditions. The report notes that there is a potential risk in a slowdown of Singapore’s economy and a softening labor market in the second half of 2025. This could be caused by weaker external demand due to broader tariff impacts and lower labor demand, particularly in the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors.